Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between Sashi Esport and Lavked in the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 8 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Sashi Esport" if Sashi Esport win the match against Lavked. This market will resolve to "Lavked" if Lavked win the match against Sashi Esport. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map Handicap: Lavked (-1.5) vs Sashi Esport (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs Lavked (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Sashi Esport and Lavked are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match on 8 May at 1:00PM ET as part of the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for a Sashi Esport victory, suggesting traders are pricing in either overwhelming confidence in a Lavked win or significant uncertainty about whether the match will be contested at all.
The 0% pricing is unusual for a competitive esports fixture and warrants examination against comparable Counter-Strike group stage matches. Historically, matches in established tournament structures rarely trade at such extremes unless one team has withdrawn, faced roster disqualifications, or the event itself faces cancellation risk. NODWIN tournaments have generally maintained fixture integrity, though scheduling delays in esports are common. The settlement terms allow for a 50-50 resolution if the match is cancelled or delayed beyond seven days without completion, which may be influencing the current probability formation.
Traders should monitor official NODWIN communications and team rosters through early May, particularly any announcements regarding visa issues, player availability, or tournament postponements. Sashi Esport's recent competitive activity and Lavked's current standing in regional rankings would provide baseline context for assessing whether the 0% reflects genuine competitive imbalance or structural event risk. The settlement window closes 23:00 UTC on 8 May, leaving limited time for late-stage information to shift the market once matches commence.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$56K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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