Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Nuclear TigeRES and Lavked in the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 14 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nuclear TigeRES" if Nuclear TigeRES win the match against Lavked. This market will resolve to "Lavked" if Lavked win the match against Nuclear TigeRES. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 65% YES | 36% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 66% YES | 35% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Map Handicap: NTR (-1.5) vs Lavked (+1.5) | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Nuclear TigeRES face Lavked in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match within the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage, scheduled for 14 May at 7:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 65% implied probability for Nuclear TigeRES, suggesting market participants view them as clear favourites. Settlement occurs at 17:00 UTC on 14 May, with the match outcome determining resolution; cancellation, ties, or delays exceeding seven days without completion trigger a 50-50 split.
The 65% probability sits within typical ranges for established regional teams facing less prominent opposition in qualifier-stage tournaments. NODWIN's Clutch Series operates as a secondary competitive pathway in South Asian Counter-Strike, where team consistency varies considerably between events. Historical results from comparable group-stage matches show favourites at this probability level win approximately 60–70% of the time, though upsets occur when lower-seeded teams field strong map pools or exploit specific tactical weaknesses.
Key variables for traders include roster confirmations closer to match day—substitutions or last-minute withdrawals have disrupted NODWIN fixtures previously—and any schedule adjustments from the tournament organiser. The 7:00 AM ET start time may affect participation if either team experiences connectivity issues or player availability constraints in their region. Monitor NODWIN's official channels and team announcements through 13 May for any format changes or postponements that could trigger the tie-resolution clause.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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