Trade: Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 4 match between NRG and FUT Esports in the IEM Atlanta Group A, initially scheduled for May 11 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "NRG" if NRG win the match against FUT Esports. This market will resolve to "FUT Esports" if FUT Esports win the match against NRG. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $429K
- Total Volume
- $682K
- 24h Volume
- $668K
- Open Interest
- $457K
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 4% YES | 97% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) | 88% YES | 12% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
NRG and FUT Esports will contest the upper bracket quarterfinal of IEM Atlanta's Group A on 11 May, with the winner advancing in the tournament structure. The match is scheduled for 11:30 AM ET and will be played as a best-of-three series. This is a significant fixture within one of Counter-Strike's premier international tournaments, where both organisations field competitive rosters capable of deep runs.
The 19% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects NRG as substantial underdogs against FUT Esports. Historical matchup data and recent form heavily favour FUT, who have demonstrated consistency at tier-one events throughout 2025 and 2026. NRG's roster has undergone transitions that have affected their competitive standing relative to established European and international squads. When comparing similar matchups between established top-tier teams and organisations rebuilding their lineups, the probability distribution typically skews toward the more stable, proven roster—which aligns with current market pricing.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes from either organisation in the days preceding the match, as Counter-Strike rosters occasionally shift before major tournaments. Tournament scheduling updates from ESL, which operates IEM events, may affect the exact timing or bracket positioning. Recent performance at qualifying events and online tournaments will provide the most current form indicators. The settlement window extends to 12 May, providing a one-day buffer beyond the scheduled match date, though delays beyond seven days would trigger a 50-50 resolution per the market's terms.
Wikipedia Context
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Counter-Strike: Global OffensiveCounter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO) is a multiplayer tactical first-person shooter developed by Valve and Hidden Path Entertainment. It is the fourth game in the Counter-Strike series. Developed for over two years, Global Offensive was released for OS X, PlayStation 3, Windows, and Xbox 360 in August 2012, and for Linux in 2014. In December 2018, Valve
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Counter-Strike
Counter-Strike (CS) is a series of multiplayer tactical first-person shooter video games, in which opposing teams attempt to complete various objectives. The series began on Windows in 1999 with the release of the first game, Counter-Strike. It was initially released as a mod for Half-Life that was designed by Minh Le and Jess Cliffe before the rights to the
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Counter-Strike (video game)Counter-Strike is a 2000 tactical first-person shooter game developed by Valve Corporation and published by Sierra Studios. It is the first installment in the Counter-Strike series.
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Counterstrike (drum and bass group)
Counterstrike is a drum and bass music producer duo from Cape Town consisting of Justin Scholtemeyer and Eaton Crous. They are considered to be one of the pioneers of the South African drum and bass scene. Counterstrike are known for their composition of raw, high-energy sound inspired by metal, techno and early techstep.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCSb. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$682K in lifetime turnover and $429K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $668K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCSb. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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