Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between MOUZ and G2 in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 10 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against G2. This market will resolve to "G2" if G2 win the match against MOUZ. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Match Winner | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 51% NO |
MOUZ and G2 face off in Round 2 of the PGL Astana Group Stage Counter-Strike tournament, a best-of-three match scheduled for 10 May 2026 at 01:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 48% implied probability for MOUZ victory, suggesting near-parity between the two rosters with modest lean towards G2. This probability has formed through active trading across the book's depth, with both teams regarded as capable of securing the series.
Historically, MOUZ and G2 occupy similar tiers within professional Counter-Strike's competitive hierarchy, though their recent form and roster stability differ. G2's roster has shown greater consistency through 2025 and into 2026, whilst MOUZ has experienced tactical adjustments. Head-to-head records between these organisations over the past 18 months favour neither decisively, with map pool matchups and individual player performance on the day typically determining outcomes. The 48% reading reflects uncertainty rather than a clear favourite, consistent with prior meetings where either team has proven capable of taking series.
Traders should monitor official PGL communications regarding match scheduling, as the 01:00 ET start time creates potential for delays or rescheduling announcements. Roster confirmations and any last-minute stand-in declarations would shift the probability materially. Recent form updates from both teams' performances in preceding group stage matches will provide concrete data points; watch for injury reports or technical issues that might affect either side's preparation window before the match begins.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$383K in lifetime turnover and $217K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $383K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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