Trade: Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between MOUZ and Aurora Gaming in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 12 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Aurora Gaming. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against MOUZ. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $213K
- Total Volume
- $75K
- 24h Volume
- $75K
- Open Interest
- $62K
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
MOUZ face Aurora Gaming in a Counter-Strike best-of-three match during the PGL Astana Group Stage, with the fixture scheduled for 12 May at 01:00 ET. The 54% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects moderate confidence in MOUZ as favourites, though the spread remains relatively tight given the competitive tier of both squads. Aurora Gaming, a CIS-region organisation, has shown inconsistent results against established European teams, whilst MOUZ maintains a stronger track record in tier-one competition despite recent roster adjustments.
Historical matchups between established European organisations and CIS-region challengers in group-stage formats typically favour the former by 55–65% probability, particularly when the European side has recent LAN experience. MOUZ's positioning at 54% aligns with this baseline, suggesting the market has priced in Aurora's underdog status without applying a significant discount. The relatively narrow margin indicates uncertainty around current form rather than structural disadvantage.
Traders should monitor PGL's official schedule for any fixture delays or format changes, as the settlement window extends only seven days beyond the scheduled date. Roster confirmations from both organisations and recent scrim results posted on community platforms like HLTV may shift the probability in the days preceding the match. Any last-minute stand-in announcements or visa complications affecting either team would constitute material information, particularly given the early morning ET kickoff time which could affect participation logistics.
Wikipedia Context
-
Counter-Strike: SourceCounter-Strike: Source is a tactical first-person shooter video game developed by Valve and Turtle Rock Studios. Released in October 2004 for Windows, it is a remake of Counter-Strike (2000) using the Source game engine. As in the original, Counter-Strike: Source pits a team of counter-terrorists against a team of terrorists in a series of rounds. Each round
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$75K in lifetime turnover and $213K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $75K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: