Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between MASQ and Oldboys in the United21 Group A, initially scheduled for May 10 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MASQ" if MASQ win the match against Oldboys. This market will resolve to "Oldboys" if Oldboys win the match against MASQ. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: Oldboys (-1.5) vs MASQ (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
MASQ and Oldboys are scheduled to compete in a Counter-Strike best-of-three match within the United21 Group A tournament on 10 May at 04:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for MASQ victory, indicating that traders have priced in an extremely confident outcome before the match commences. This extreme skew typically emerges when one team holds a substantial competitive advantage or when information asymmetries favour one side heavily.
The 100% probability reading warrants scrutiny given historical precedent in esports prediction markets. Matches with such extreme pricing have occasionally resolved unexpectedly due to roster changes, player illness, or tactical surprises that weren't reflected in pre-match sentiment. However, the United21 tournament structure and Group A positioning suggest this confidence may be grounded in established team strength differentials. Recent esports betting markets have shown that Group stage matches in established tournaments tend to reflect genuine skill gaps more reliably than earlier-round encounters.
Traders should monitor several developments through the settlement window closing on 10 May at 14:10 UTC. Schedule adherence is critical—any delay beyond seven days triggers a 50-50 resolution regardless of eventual outcome. Additionally, roster confirmations and last-minute substitutions in the hours before the 04:00 ET start time could shift the underlying match dynamics. Technical issues or server problems affecting either team's preparation would represent material catalysts, though such disruptions rarely alter Polymarket pricing once the match begins.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/united21_en. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Oldboys (BO3) - United21 Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$76K in lifetime turnover and $197K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $76K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/united21_en. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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