Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket final match between Kaleido Gaming and THUNDER dOWNUNDER in the Asian Champions League Group B, initially scheduled for May 14 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Kaleido Gaming" if Kaleido Gaming win the match against THUNDER dOWNUNDER. This market will resolve to "THUNDER dOWNUNDER" if THUNDER dOWNUNDER win the match against Kaleido Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Map Handicap: TdU (-1.5) vs Kaleido Gaming (+1.5) | 73% YES | 28% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Kaleido Gaming and THUNDER dOWNUNDER are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match on 14 May 2026 at 06:00 ET as part of the Asian Champions League Group B lower bracket final. The winner advances further in the tournament structure, whilst the loser is eliminated. The current order book on Polymarket prices Kaleido Gaming's victory at 34 per cent implied probability, reflecting market participants' assessment that THUNDER dOWNUNDER enters as the favoured side.
Kaleido Gaming, based in Southeast Asia, has historically competed in regional tournaments with mixed results against established Australian and broader Asian rosters. THUNDER dOWNUNDER represents the Australian competitive scene and has demonstrated stronger consistency in recent Asian Champions League fixtures. Historical matchups between Southeast Asian and Oceania-based teams in Counter-Strike show the Australian contingent typically holds a slight edge in map control and tactical execution, though individual player form creates volatility. The 34 per cent probability for Kaleido suggests traders view them as underdogs but not prohibitively so.
Traders should monitor roster changes or player substitutions announced before the match, as Counter-Strike outcomes depend heavily on individual fragging ability and team cohesion. Tournament scheduling delays are common in Asian esports; any postponement beyond seven days triggers a 50-50 resolution per market terms. Confirmation of the exact scheduled time and venue from the Asian Champions League organisers, along with any pre-match analysis from esports publications covering regional Counter-Strike, will inform whether the current probability reflects available information accurately.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/acl. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Kaleido Gaming vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$203 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $203 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/acl. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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