Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between Isurus and Guara Esports in the BetBoom Storm Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 11 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Isurus" if Isurus win the match against Guara Esports. This market will resolve to "Guara Esports" if Guara Esports win the match against Isurus. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: ISG (-1.5) vs Guara Esports (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Isurus, an Argentine Counter-Strike organisation, face Guara Esports in a best-of-three opening match of the BetBoom Storm Group Stage on 11 May at 10:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 84% implied probability for Isurus victory, suggesting the market views them as clear favourites in this matchup.
Isurus have established themselves as a consistent regional competitor within South American Counter-Strike, whilst Guara Esports represent a less prominent challenger in the same competitive ecosystem. Historical precedent in regional qualifier tournaments shows that established organisations typically convert group-stage advantages into wins at rates exceeding 80%, particularly when facing less-established opponents. The current probability aligns with this pattern, though the specific skill gap between these two squads remains difficult to calibrate without recent head-to-head results or current roster composition data.
Traders should monitor several factors before settlement closes on 11 May at 20:00 ET. Roster changes or player absences announced closer to the event could shift the probability materially, as could any official schedule adjustments from BetBoom organisers. The seven-day grace period for delays means matches postponed beyond 18 May would trigger a 50-50 resolution, introducing tail risk. Recent performance data from both teams in qualifying rounds or warm-up matches, should they be published, would provide concrete evidence for reassessing the current 84% figure.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/dust2br. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Guara Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$13K in lifetime turnover and $2.0M of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $13K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/dust2br. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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