Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal match between Haunted House and THUNDER dOWNUNDER in the Asian Champions League Group B, initially scheduled for May 13 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Haunted House" if Haunted House win the match against THUNDER dOWNUNDER. This market will resolve to "THUNDER dOWNUNDER" if THUNDER dOWNUNDER win the match against Haunted House. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: TdU (-1.5) vs Haunted House (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Haunted House and THUNDER dOWNUNDER are scheduled to compete in a Counter-Strike lower bracket semifinal within the Asian Champions League Group B on 13 May at 5:00 AM ET. The best-of-three match determines progression in the regional competition. The current order book on Polymarket reflects zero probability for a Haunted House victory, suggesting market participants view THUNDER dOWNUNDER as the overwhelming favourite or that liquidity constraints are limiting price discovery at the extremes.
Asian regional Counter-Strike competitions have historically shown volatile outcomes when lesser-known rosters face established teams, though THUNDER dOWNUNDER's regional standing relative to Haunted House remains the primary determinant of match likelihood. Recent Asian Champions League fixtures have demonstrated that seeding and group stage performance correlate strongly with lower bracket advancement rates, though upsets occur when preparation gaps or tactical mismatches emerge. The 0% implied probability suggests the market has already settled on a decisive outcome based on available roster information and recent form.
Traders should monitor official ACL scheduling confirmations through the competition's communications channels, as the 7-day delay clause creates settlement ambiguity if the match is postponed. Roster changes or player availability announcements in the 48 hours before the fixture could shift expectations, particularly if either team reports absences. The settlement window closes at 17:30 UTC on 13 May, providing a narrow window for match completion and result confirmation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/churchd0gg. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Haunted House vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$33K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $55 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/churchd0gg. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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