Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between Heroic and Gentle Mates in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 11 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Heroic" if Heroic win the match against Gentle Mates. This market will resolve to "Gentle Mates" if Gentle Mates win the match against Heroic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Heroic, the Danish professional Counter-Strike team, face Gentle Mates in a best-of-three group stage match at PGL Astana on 11 May. The fixture represents a Round 3 encounter in what appears to be a competitive tournament format. Heroic currently trade at 64% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting market consensus that they enter as favourites. The settlement window closes at 11:00 UTC on 11 May, with resolution contingent on match completion; cancellations, ties, or delays exceeding seven days without a winner trigger a 50-50 split.
Heroic's recent form and roster stability provide context for the current odds. The team has maintained competitive standing in tier-one events throughout 2024 and into 2025, though their tournament results have been inconsistent. Gentle Mates, by contrast, operate at a lower competitive tier, which historically supports the 36-point probability gap. Similar matchups between established Danish squads and emerging regional teams typically see the higher-ranked side favoured between 60-70%, placing current pricing within expected ranges.
Traders should monitor fixture confirmations and any last-minute roster changes, particularly given the early morning scheduling (1:00 AM ET). PGL's official tournament updates and team social media remain primary information sources for scheduling confirmations. Internet connectivity issues or technical problems during matches have occasionally affected Counter-Strike tournaments; the seven-day delay clause provides protection against extended postponements, though same-day technical issues would likely result in rescheduling rather than 50-50 resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$324K in lifetime turnover and $1.3M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $324K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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