Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 match between FURIA and Team Falcons in the PGL Astana Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 15 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win the match against Team Falcons. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against FURIA. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
FURIA and Team Falcons will contest the fourth quarterfinal match at PGL Astana, a premier Counter-Strike tournament, on 15 May at 10:00 AM ET in a best-of-three series. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 46% implied probability for FURIA victory, suggesting the market views Team Falcons as slight favourites. This probability has formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where the spread between bid and ask prices establishes the consensus expectation.
FURIA have established themselves as a top-tier Brazilian side with consistent Major-level performances, whilst Team Falcons represent the Saudi Arabian esports investment project that has rapidly acquired established talent. Historical matchups between regional powerhouses and newly-formed superteams at this stage typically favour established team cohesion, though financial backing and player acquisition can rapidly shift competitive dynamics. The 46% probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about FURIA's ability to overcome Falcons' roster composition and preparation depth.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes through official PGL communications and team announcements in the days preceding the match. Scrim results and recent tournament performances—particularly from both teams' performances at preceding events—will provide material information. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 15 May, allowing for match delays up to seven days; any postponement beyond that threshold triggers a 50-50 resolution. Venue conditions and technical infrastructure at the Astana venue may also influence series outcomes given Counter-Strike's sensitivity to network stability and hardware consistency.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10K in lifetime turnover and $91K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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