Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 5 match between FORZE Reload and Hermine Esports Club in the Exort Series Main Stage, initially scheduled for May 14 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "FORZE Reload" if FORZE Reload win the match against Hermine Esports Club. This market will resolve to "Hermine Esports Club" if Hermine Esports Club win the match against FORZE Reload. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: FORZE.R (-1.5) vs Hermine Esports Club (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
FORZE Reload face Hermine Esports Club in a Counter-Strike best-of-three match during the Exort Series Main Stage, scheduled for 14 May at 5:30AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 78% implied probability favouring FORZE Reload, suggesting the market perceives a substantial skill or form differential between the two rosters. This probability has been established through active trading on the platform's order book, where buyers and sellers have converged on pricing that heavily favours the Russian organisation.
FORZE Reload competes regularly in Eastern European and CIS-region competitions and has maintained a presence in professional Counter-Strike despite roster volatility. Hermine Esports Club operates with less established tournament pedigree in major circuits. Historical matchups between teams of disparate competitive levels in regional qualifiers and main-stage tournaments typically see the favoured side win 75–85% of best-of-three encounters, which aligns with the current market pricing. The 78% probability sits within this range, suggesting traders are pricing in a competitive but decidedly uneven fixture.
Key variables affecting settlement include roster confirmation closer to match day, any last-minute substitutions, and technical delays common to early-morning ET scheduling across time zones. The seven-day resolution window provides buffer for rescheduling without triggering a 50-50 settlement, though traders should monitor official Exort Series communications for fixture changes. Map pool composition and recent scrim results, if publicly available, may shift the order book in the final hours before play.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/exort_en2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/exort_en2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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