Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between fnatic and HAVU in the CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 12 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic win the match against HAVU. This market will resolve to "HAVU" if HAVU win the match against fnatic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 81% YES | 20% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 73% YES | 27% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 73% YES | 27% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs HAVU (+1.5) | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
fnatic and HAVU will contest a Counter-Strike best-of-three match in the CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs Round of 16, scheduled for 12 May 2026 at 07:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 80% implied probability of fnatic victory, suggesting the market perceives a substantial skill differential between the two sides. This pricing emerges from real-time trading activity across the book's depth, with buyers willing to accept 1-to-4 odds on a fnatic win.
fnatic's historical standing as a top-tier European Counter-Strike organisation provides context for the current probability. The squad has maintained consistent qualification into major tournament stages and typically fields players with significant LAN experience. HAVU, whilst a credible regional competitor, has not demonstrated the same level of sustained performance at the highest tiers of European competition. Previous CCT Europe events show fnatic advancing through group stages with relative consistency, whereas HAVU's participation history suggests lower conversion rates in knockout formats.
Traders should monitor fixture confirmations and any last-minute roster changes announced before the settlement window closes on 12 May at 17:00 UTC. Withdrawal or substitution of key players—particularly fnatic's primary riflers or in-game leader—could materially shift the probability. Additionally, any official postponement beyond seven days from the scheduled date would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Current CCT Europe scheduling announcements should be cross-referenced with official Counter-Strike event calendars to confirm no administrative delays have been flagged.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/cct_cs. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: fnatic vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$528 in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $528 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/cct_cs. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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