Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket round 3 match between Clair Obscur and Misa Esports in the CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 14 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Clair Obscur" if Clair Obscur win the match against Misa Esports. This market will resolve to "Misa Esports" if Misa Esports win the match against Clair Obscur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map Handicap: MISA (-1.5) vs Clair Obscur (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Clair Obscur face Misa Esports in a lower bracket round 3 match of the CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs, a regional Counter-Strike 2 competition. The match is scheduled for 14 May at 11:30 AM ET, with the settlement window closing at 22:00 UTC the same day. The 99% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong market conviction toward a Clair Obscur victory, though the depth of liquidity at extreme probabilities often narrows significantly when traders attempt to move substantial volume.
CCT Europe Contenders tournaments typically feature mid-tier European rosters competing for circuit points and prize money. Clair Obscur's positioning in the lower bracket suggests they lost an earlier match, as does Misa Esports' presence. Historical precedent shows that lower bracket matches in regional CS2 competitions rarely feature the skill disparity that would justify 99% probabilities; upsets occur regularly when teams face unfamiliar opponents or experience roster instability. The current probability may reflect public perception of team strength rather than granular match-specific factors.
Traders should monitor for schedule changes or cancellations, which would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause if the match is delayed beyond seven days. Roster announcements or player absences announced closer to match time could shift expectations materially. The CCT circuit publishes match schedules and results through its official channels; confirmation of both teams' participation and any technical issues during play will determine settlement. Given the extreme probability, any material information suggesting competitive parity would likely find significant counterparty interest.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/cct_cs4. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Clair Obscur vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11K in lifetime turnover and $79K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $11K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/cct_cs4. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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