Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Rubrik is estimated to release earnings on June 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Rubrik’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-0.03 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rubrik reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $-0.03 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Rubrik releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Rubrik (RBRK) beat quarterly earnings? | 97% YES | 3% NO |
Rubrik is scheduled to report Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings on 4 June 2026, with the market testing whether the cloud data management company will post non-GAAP EPS above the Street consensus estimate of −$0.03. The 97% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects an exceptionally high confidence that Rubrik will clear this threshold. This positioning suggests traders view the consensus estimate as conservative or that the bar itself—a loss of just three cents per share—is low enough that execution risk is minimal.
Rubrik's path to profitability has been gradual but consistent. The company achieved non-GAAP profitability in Q4 fiscal 2025, marking a significant inflection point after years of losses. Historical precedent shows that once software-as-a-service vendors reach this milestone, they tend to maintain or improve margins as revenue scales. The Street's negative consensus estimate for the upcoming quarter appears to reflect either timing assumptions around the quarter's close or conservative guidance rather than expectations of deterioration.
Near-term catalysts include any pre-earnings commentary from management, which could shift guidance or provide forward-looking colour on customer demand and retention. Rubrik's subscription revenue growth rate and remaining performance obligations (RPO) will be closely watched, as these metrics directly influence investor confidence in sustained profitability. The settlement window closes immediately after market hours on 4 June, leaving minimal time for post-earnings volatility to influence resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Rubrik (RBRK) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$941 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for equities contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $20 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 97%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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