Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10 The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series,…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <1.5% | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| 2.5–2.9% | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| 4.0–4.4% | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| 1.5–1.9% | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| 2.0–2.4% | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| 3.0–3.4% | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| 3.5–3.9% | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| 4.5%+ | 25% YES | 75% NO |
The Bank of Korea will release its advance estimate of real GDP growth for Q2 2026 on 23 July 2026. The market is pricing a 19% probability that year-on-year growth will exceed a specific threshold (likely 2% or higher, based on typical settlement conventions). This implies the crowd expects sub-threshold growth—a meaningful slowdown from South Korea's recent performance or a continuation of modest expansion depending on the exact settlement level. Current Polymarket order book activity reflects this bearish lean, with YES orders thinly supported relative to NO positions.
South Korea's recent GDP trajectory provides context. The economy expanded 2.3% year-on-year in Q4 2024 and 2.2% in Q1 2025, according to Bank of Korea data. Growth has remained resilient but modest, constrained by demographic headwinds, semiconductor cyclicality, and global demand uncertainty. A Q2 2026 reading below 2% would represent deceleration from this baseline, whilst anything above 2.5% would signal acceleration. Historical volatility in quarterly estimates and subsequent revisions means the advance release carries material uncertainty.
Key catalysts include Bank of Korea monetary policy decisions and forward guidance through early 2026, which will shape growth expectations. Global semiconductor demand—critical for Samsung and SK Hynix—remains a primary driver; any weakness in chip cycle forecasts would pressure the upside case. Domestic consumption data and export figures released ahead of the GDP announcement will provide traders with leading indicators. The settlement window closes immediately upon the Bank of Korea's official release, leaving no room for revision surprises to influence trading.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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