Trade: Central Bank of Colombia decision in July?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $665
- Total Volume
- $46
- 24h Volume
- $33
- Open Interest
- $46
Market outcomes
| 25 bps decrease | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| 25 bps increase | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| 50+ bps decrease | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| No change | 70% YES | 30% NO |
| 50+ bps increase | 40% YES | 60% NO |
Market context
The Central Bank of Colombia will announce its monetary policy decision on 31 July 2026. The market settles based on whether the benchmark interest rate changes from its pre-meeting level, with resolution determined by the official statement from Banco de la República. The 17% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects trader expectations that the rate will remain unchanged at that meeting.
Colombia's central bank has maintained its policy rate at 5.5% since November 2024 after an aggressive easing cycle that began in 2023. Historical precedent suggests the bank typically signals rate changes well in advance through forward guidance, and extended pauses are common once the bank reaches what it deems an appropriate neutral rate. The current probability distribution implies traders view a hold as substantially more likely than either a cut or hike, consistent with the bank's recent communication pattern and the lag between inflation data and policy adjustments.
Key catalysts include inflation prints in the months preceding the July meeting—particularly June's consumer price data—and any shifts in Federal Reserve policy that affect regional capital flows and currency pressures. The bank's June meeting statement will provide crucial forward guidance on July intentions. External factors such as oil price movements and broader Latin American monetary trends will also influence expectations, as Colombia's inflation trajectory and exchange rate stability remain central to the bank's decision framework.
Wikipedia Context
-
Central bankA central bank, reserve bank, national bank, state bank, or monetary authority is an institution that manages the monetary policy of a country or monetary union. In contrast to a commercial bank, a central bank possesses a monopoly on increasing the monetary base. Many central banks also have supervisory or regulatory powers to ensure the stability of commer
-
Central Bank of IranThe Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, also known as Bank Markazi, was established under the Iranian Banking and Monetary Act in 1960. It serves as the banker to the Iranian government and has the exclusive right to issue banknotes and coinage. CBI is tasked with maintaining the value of the Iranian rial and supervision of banks and credit institu
-
Central Bank of IrelandThe Central Bank of Ireland is the national central bank for Ireland within the Eurosystem. From 1943 to 1998, it was the monetary authority responsible for issuing and controlling the Irish pound. It is also the country's primary financial supervisory authority.
-
Central Bank of the Republic of TurkeyThe Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) is the central bank of Turkey. Its responsibilities include conducting monetary and exchange rate policy, managing international reserves of Turkey, as well as printing and issuing banknotes, and establishing, maintaining and regulating payment systems in the country.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Central Bank of Colombia decision in July?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$46 in lifetime turnover and $665 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $33 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Central Bank of Colombia decision in July?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: