Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| May 30 | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 15 | 29% YES | 71% NO |
The market concerns whether a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake will strike anywhere on Earth between now and 31 May 2026. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program serves as the authoritative resolution source, with a provision allowing the market to remain open through the end of the following month should a significant event occur but not yet appear in official records. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 55% probability of at least one such event occurring within this roughly 18-month window.
Historical seismic data provides context for interpreting this probability. The USGS records approximately 15 magnitude 7.0–7.9 earthquakes annually on a global basis, with larger events occurring less frequently. Over an 18-month period, the statistical expectation would suggest a moderately high likelihood of at least one event meeting the threshold, though seismic activity clusters unpredictably. The 55% implied probability reflects neither the raw statistical average nor extreme confidence in either direction, suggesting the market is pricing genuine uncertainty rather than a consensus view.
Traders monitoring this market should track seismic activity reports from the USGS, which publishes real-time earthquake data, and watch for any significant tremors in major subduction zones or fault lines, particularly around the Pacific Ring of Fire. Recent activity in regions such as Japan, Chile, and Indonesia warrants attention given their historical seismic volatility. The resolution mechanism's allowance for a one-month lag after the settlement date means traders should remain alert to any borderline events occurring near the deadline, as these may affect final settlement timing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$21K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for earthquakes contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $468 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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