Earnings

Trade: Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?

100% YES 0% NO

Opened 23 April 2026 · Settles 6 May 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Marriott is estimated to release earnings on May 6, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Marriott’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.55 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marriott reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.55 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Marriott releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $4K
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $3K

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Market outcomes

Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?

100% YES

0% NO

Market context

Marriott International will report first-quarter 2026 earnings on 6 May, with the market assessing whether reported non-GAAP EPS will exceed the Street consensus estimate of $2.55. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for a beat, suggesting traders are pricing in near-certain outperformance relative to consensus expectations.

Marriott has consistently beaten earnings estimates over the past eight quarters, with an average beat margin of roughly 3–5% on EPS. This track record of execution, combined with the company's scale in RevPAR management and cost discipline, has anchored elevated expectations. However, the 100% probability on the order book warrants scrutiny; such extremes typically reflect either very thin liquidity in the market or a genuine consensus that the bar is set conservatively. Historical precedent suggests that even well-managed hospitality operators occasionally miss or meet consensus exactly, making absolute certainty unusual.

Key variables for traders to monitor include forward bookings data released in April, any material changes to RevPAR trends across Marriott's portfolio, and broader travel demand signals from competitors' earnings in late April. Currency headwinds, particularly sterling weakness affecting UK and European properties, could pressure reported results. Additionally, any guidance revisions or commentary on summer 2026 demand will likely move the market closer to the settlement date, as the current pricing leaves minimal room for disappointment.

Wikipedia Context

Marriott Marquis San Diego Marina
Marriott Marquis San Diego Marina is a hotel in San Diego, California. In the Marina district of downtown San Diego, the hotel is composed of two towers of equal height. The two towers are the 20th tallest buildings in San Diego and are a prominent fixture in the city's skyline. The 25-story towers have a height of 361 ft and contain 1,362 rooms. The hotel i
Marriott Marquis Houston
The Marriott Marquis Houston is a 1000-room Marriott hotel in Houston, Texas. It is the second large hotel located near the George R. Brown Convention Center, to which it is connected by a pedestrian sky bridge. It includes six restaurants and a 40,000-square-foot ballroom, the largest in Houston. The hotel is the sixth Marriott Marquis Hotel. It is most fam
New York Marriott Marquis
The New York Marriott Marquis is a Marriott hotel on Times Square, in the Theater District of Midtown Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S. Designed by architect John C. Portman Jr., the hotel is at 1535 Broadway, between 45th and 46th Streets. It has 1,971 rooms and 101,000 sq ft (9,400 m2) of meeting space.
Washington Marriott Marquis
Marriott Marquis Washington, DC is a luxury hotel located on Massachusetts Avenue NW, in NW, Washington, D.C., United States. The hotel is connected to the Walter E. Washington Convention Center across 9th Street NW via an underground concourse and receives significant business from convention attendees.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 100% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $100 if YES resolves true — a 0% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$4K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for earnings contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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