Trade: Will Lowe's (LOW) beat quarterly earnings?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Lowe's is estimated to release earnings on May 20, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Lowe's's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.88 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lowe's reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.88 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Lowe's releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $33
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Will Lowe's (LOW) beat quarterly earnings? | 85% YES | 15% NO |
Market context
Lowe's will report first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on 20 May 2026, with the Street consensus forecasting GAAP EPS of $2.88. The market currently prices an 86% probability of the company beating this estimate, reflecting confidence in execution. This probability is formed through Polymarket's order book, where traders are pricing in a relatively narrow miss threshold—Lowe's needs only marginal outperformance to resolve affirmatively.
Historically, Lowe's has demonstrated consistent earnings delivery relative to consensus. Over the past eight quarters, the company has beaten EPS estimates in six instances, with misses typically ranging from 1–3% below guidance rather than substantial shortfalls. This track record supports the elevated implied probability, though seasonal Q1 weakness in home improvement retail—traditionally the weakest quarter before spring demand—introduces execution risk that the current pricing may underweight.
Key catalysts include comparable store sales trends through April, which will signal consumer spending momentum in discretionary home improvement categories. Supply chain stability and lumber pricing remain material variables affecting gross margins. Any guidance revisions or commentary on consumer spending patterns during the earnings call could shift sentiment sharply. Traders should monitor housing starts and mortgage rate movements in the weeks preceding the announcement, as these indicators correlate with Lowe's demand environment and could prompt pre-earnings position adjustments.
Wikipedia Context
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Rob LoweRobert Hepler Lowe is an American actor, filmmaker, and entertainment host. Following numerous television roles in the early 1980s, he came to prominence as a teen idol and member of the Brat Pack with starring roles in The Outsiders (1983), Class (1983), The Hotel New Hampshire (1984), Oxford Blues (1984), St. Elmo's Fire (1985), About Last Night... (1986),
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Sophie LoweSophie Lowe is a British-born Australian actress, singer and songwriter. She is known for appearing in films such as Beautiful Kate, Autumn Blood, After the Dark, Adore, Road Kill, Above Suspicion, Medieval and Blow the Man Down, and starring in the television series Once Upon a Time in Wonderland, The Slap, The Returned, and The Beautiful Lie.
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John Lowe (darts player)John Lowe is an English former professional darts player who was one of the most prominent throwers from the late 1970s onwards. Lowe was world champion on three occasions, in 1979, 1987 and 1993. He was also a two-time winner of the World Masters and lifted the World Cup singles title on two occasions. In total, Lowe won 15 British Darts Organisation (BDO)
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Lower Township, New JerseyLower Township is a township in Cape May County, in the U.S. state of New Jersey. The township, and all of Cape May County, is part of the Ocean City metropolitan statistical area, and is part of the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD combined statistical area, also known as the Delaware Valley or Philadelphia metropolitan area. As of the 2020 Unite
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Lowe's (LOW) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 85% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $118 if YES resolves true — a 18% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $33 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for earnings contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will Lowe's (LOW) beat quarterly earnings?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 85%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Lowe's (LOW) beat quarterly earnings?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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