Trade: Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, HP is estimated to release earnings on May 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for HP’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.71 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if HP reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.71 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If HP releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $5
- Total Volume
- $20
- 24h Volume
- $20
- Open Interest
- $11
Market outcomes
| Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings? | 54% YES | 47% NO |
Market context
HP is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings on 27 May 2026, with the market settling on whether the company's non-GAAP earnings per share will exceed the Street consensus estimate of $0.71. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 49% implied probability for an earnings beat, suggesting near-parity between traders expecting HP to exceed consensus and those anticipating a miss or in-line result. This even split indicates material uncertainty about HP's near-term operational performance relative to analyst expectations.
HP's historical earnings track record provides context for interpreting the current probability. Over the past two years, HP has beaten consensus EPS estimates in roughly 60% of quarterly releases, though the magnitude of beats has varied considerably depending on PC market conditions and printing segment performance. The company's ability to surprise has been sensitive to broader technology spending cycles and supply chain normalisation, both of which remain variable heading into Q2 2026. A 49% probability thus reflects some scepticism about HP's consistency relative to its historical beat rate, possibly accounting for recent margin pressures or guidance concerns.
Key catalysts before settlement include any forward guidance HP provides in its May earnings call, which typically signals management confidence in near-term demand. Traders should monitor announcements regarding PC shipment trends, enterprise printing contracts, and any commentary on competitive pricing dynamics in the printer market. Additionally, broader technology sector earnings reports in late April and early May may influence sentiment around HP's own performance, as institutional investors often reassess hardware manufacturers' outlooks in light of peer results and macroeconomic signals.
Wikipedia Context
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HP ProBookThe HP ProBook is a line of laptop computers aimed towards businesses, originally produced by Hewlett-Packard and later by its successor, HP Inc., with a list price lower than that of HP's higher-end EliteBook series. At its introduction in 2009, HP sold both business-oriented desktops and laptops under the HP Compaq and HP ProBook brands respectively from 2
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HP Pavilion
HP Pavilion is a line of consumer-oriented personal computers originally produced by Hewlett-Packard and later by its successor, HP Inc. Introduced in 1995, HP has used the name for both desktops and laptops for home and home office use.
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HP Pavilion dv9000 seriesThe HP Pavilion dv9000 was a model series of laptops manufactured by Hewlett-Packard Company that featured 16:10 17.0" diagonal displays.
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HP PrimeThe HP Prime Graphing Calculator is a graphing calculator introduced by Hewlett-Packard in 2013 and manufactured by HP Inc. until the licensees Moravia Consulting spol. s r.o. and Royal Consumer Information Products, Inc. took over the continued development, manufacturing, distribution, marketing and support in 2022. It was designed with features resembling
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 54% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $185 if YES resolves true — a 85% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$20 in lifetime turnover and $5 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for earnings contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $20 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 54%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 27 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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