Trade: Will Five Below (FIVE) beat quarterly earnings?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Five Below is estimated to release earnings on June 3, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Five Below’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.71 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Five Below reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.71 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Five Below releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $451
- Total Volume
- $407
- 24h Volume
- $39
- Open Interest
- $318
Market outcomes
| Will Five Below (FIVE) beat quarterly earnings? | 91% YES | 9% NO |
Market context
Five Below will report Q1 2026 earnings on 3 June 2026, with the market settling on whether non-GAAP EPS exceeds the Street consensus of $1.71. The 91% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial confidence in a beat, though this sits notably higher than typical earnings-beat rates across the broader market, where roughly 70–75% of S&P 500 constituents historically exceed consensus estimates.
Five Below's recent track record supports elevated expectations. The discount retailer has beaten EPS estimates in seven of its last eight quarterly releases, with an average beat margin of approximately 8–12%. The company's inventory management and comparable-store sales momentum have generally outpaced sector peers, establishing a pattern that traders are pricing into the current 91% probability. However, the retail environment remains sensitive to consumer spending shifts, and Five Below's reliance on discretionary categories—toys, accessories, home décor—creates vulnerability to demand softness.
Key catalysts ahead of the 3 June settlement include any pre-earnings guidance updates, comparable-store sales trends reported by peer retailers, and broader consumer spending data through May. Traders should monitor Five Below's inventory levels and promotional activity in late May, as these often signal management confidence in the quarter. The current probability implies minimal room for disappointment; even a modest miss or in-line result would resolve the market to "No," making execution risk the primary variable between now and settlement.
Wikipedia Context
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Santigie Borbor Kanu
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Five (Five album)Five is the debut studio album by English boy band Five. It was released in the United Kingdom on 22 June 1998 and charted at number one the UK Albums Chart, becoming the band's only album to do so. The album was later released in the United States on 14 July 1998, where it charted at number 27 on the Billboard 200, making it the most successful album by the
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Five Below (FIVE) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 91% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $110 if YES resolves true — a 10% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$407 in lifetime turnover and $451 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for earnings contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $39 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will Five Below (FIVE) beat quarterly earnings?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 91%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Five Below (FIVE) beat quarterly earnings?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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