Dota 2

Trade: Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Natus Vincere and Nigma Galaxy in the DreamLeague Group B, initially scheduled for May 13 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Nigma Galaxy. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$17K
Total Volume
—
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
—
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Market outcomes

Match Winner 56% YES44% NO
Game 1 Winner 55% YES45% NO
Game 2 Winner 55% YES45% NO
O/U 2.5 Games 49% YES51% NO
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) 32% YES69% NO
Ends in Daytime 52% YES48% NO
Both Teams Beat Roshan 32% YES68% NO
Both Teams Destroy Barracks 27% YES73% NO

Market context

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 56% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-05-13T19:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.

World-affairs prediction markets price discrete geopolitical outcomes — ceasefires, treaty signings, leadership transitions — and tend to drift on rumour and snap-correct on official announcements.

Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.

Wikipedia Context

  • Donatus, Landgrave of Hesse
    Donatus, Landgrave of Hesse

    Donatus, Prince and Landgrave of Hesse is a German businessman and the head of the House of Brabant and the House of Hesse.

  • Donatus Magnus
    Donatus Magnus

    Donatus Magnus, also known as Donatus of Carthage, was a prophetic and charismatic leader who emerged in the early fourth century as the founder of the Donatist movement, a Christian sect that arose in North Africa as a result of the Diocletianic Persecution.

  • Donatus of Fiesole
    Donatus of Fiesole

    Donatus of Fiesole was an Irish teacher and poet, and Bishop of Fiesole.

  • Donatus of Bagai

    Donatus of Bagaï, also known as Donatus of Aurasium, was an ancient Donatist bishop and martyr whose life and actions played a significant role in the complex religious landscape of 4th century Numidia. Despite being primarily known through hostile reports, notably found in Optatus' "Contra Parmenianum Donatistam" Donatus of Bagai left a lasting impact on th

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$0 in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for dota 2 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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