Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ventuals (https://x.com/ventuals) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Ventuals, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31 2025 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 2026 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| December 31 2026 | 59% YES | 41% NO |
| March 31 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| September 30 2026 | 63% YES | 37% NO |
Ventuals, a cryptocurrency platform focused on event prediction and derivatives trading, currently shows no public roadmap for launching a governance token before the end of 2026. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the absence of any official announcements regarding token development, timeline, or distribution mechanisms. With the settlement window closing on 1 January 2027, traders are pricing in minimal likelihood that the project will execute a full token launch—requiring both technical deployment and active public trading—within the remaining period.
Comparable cases in crypto suggest that governance token launches typically require 6–12 months of development, auditing, and regulatory consideration once publicly announced. Projects that have launched tokens without prior public signalling remain rare; most established platforms telegraph intentions months in advance through whitepapers, governance proposals, or investor communications. The current zero probability reflects this historical pattern: projects rarely surprise markets with unannounced token releases, and Ventuals has given no indication of such plans across its public channels or recent communications.
Traders monitoring this market should watch for any official statements from Ventuals regarding tokenomics, governance structure, or fundraising rounds that might signal imminent token development. Recent activity on the project's social media and any partnerships or funding announcements could serve as early catalysts. However, absent concrete public signals in the coming months, the probability would likely remain anchored near zero given the compressed timeline and the requirement for tokens to be actively tradeable rather than merely announced.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Ventuals launch a token by ___ ?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$168K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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