Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| March 31, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| September 30, 2026 | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
Nansen, the blockchain analytics and intelligence platform, has not announced plans to launch a governance token as of late 2024. The market settles on whether such a token becomes actively tradeable by the end of 2026, with the 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflecting trader conviction that a launch remains unlikely within this timeframe. The settlement criteria require the token to be publicly transferable and tradable—announcements or pre-launch activities do not qualify.
Comparable cases in crypto infrastructure provide context for reading this probability. Analytics platforms like Glassnode and Messari have operated for years without launching tokens, whilst others including Chainalysis have similarly avoided tokenisation despite their prominence in the sector. Conversely, some data platforms have tokenised governance structures, though typically after establishing substantial user bases and revenue models. Nansen's current business model relies on subscription revenue from institutional and retail users rather than community governance, which historically correlates with lower tokenisation urgency.
Traders should monitor Nansen's funding announcements, leadership statements regarding tokenomics, and any shifts in competitive positioning that might necessitate community alignment. Recent industry trends show mixed signals: whilst some analytics firms have explored token launches to fund development or decentralise governance, regulatory scrutiny around utility tokens and the maturation of the analytics market have made such moves less common. Any formal announcement from Nansen regarding tokenisation plans would serve as the primary catalyst, though the absence of such signals through late 2024 underpins the current market pricing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Nansen launch a token by ___?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$202K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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