Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if 3Jane officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only an official token launched by 3Jane will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from 3Jane (https://x.com/3janexyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| September 30, 2026 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| March 31, 2027 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| September 30, 2027 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| June 30, 2027 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| December 31, 2027 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
3Jane, a privacy-focused blockchain infrastructure project, may or may not issue its own native token before the end of 2027. The market currently reflects 48% implied probability, suggesting meaningful uncertainty amongst traders on Polymarket's order book about whether the team will execute a token launch within the settlement window. The distinction matters: announcements of intent do not resolve this market to "Yes"—only an officially launched token that is actively tradable on public markets will qualify. Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens, and synthetic derivatives are explicitly excluded from resolution criteria.
Token launches in the privacy and infrastructure sectors have historically followed varied timelines. Projects like Monero never issued a discrete launch event, whilst others such as Zcash conducted a structured genesis. More recently, infrastructure teams have delayed token distributions to align with protocol maturity or regulatory clarity. The 48% probability suggests the market has priced in both the possibility that 3Jane prioritises early decentralisation and the risk that the team defers issuance beyond 2027 to establish stronger product-market fit or navigate regulatory uncertainty.
Traders should monitor 3Jane's official communications on X for any formal token announcements, roadmap updates, or governance discussions that might signal imminent launch plans. The team's recent activity and development velocity on mainnet deployments will likely influence market sentiment. Regulatory developments affecting privacy tokens, particularly in major jurisdictions, could also shift the probability materially if they create compliance friction for a 2027 launch.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will 3Jane launch a token by 2028?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $534 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: