Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Hyperliquid hit in May?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 52 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| ↑ 48 | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| ↑ 44 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 38 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| ↓ 32 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| ↓ 28 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ↓ 24 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Hyperliquid's price action in May 2026 will depend on whether the decentralised perpetuals exchange token reaches a specific threshold during that calendar month. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 13% implied probability, suggesting traders assess a relatively low likelihood of this price target being hit. Settlement occurs after the May window closes, with final determination on 1 June 2026.
Comparable crypto exchange tokens have shown substantial volatility tied to platform adoption metrics and broader market cycles. FTX's FTT token, before the exchange's collapse, demonstrated how tightly exchange tokens correlate with user growth, trading volumes, and competitive positioning. Hyperliquid's token launched in March 2024 and has experienced the typical post-launch volatility pattern seen in similar infrastructure tokens. The current 13% probability reflects both the token's existing price level and the historical difficulty of predicting precise monthly price targets in crypto markets, where single-month moves often depend on concentrated catalyst events rather than gradual accumulation.
Traders monitoring this market should track Hyperliquid's monthly active user counts, total value locked, and any protocol upgrades or feature releases scheduled for May. Broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, Bitcoin's price trajectory, and competing perpetuals platforms' announcements will influence capital flows. Recent developments in regulatory clarity around decentralised exchanges could also shift market expectations. The settlement window's placement after May ends means traders will have clarity on actual May price action before final resolution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Hyperliquid hit in May?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$12K in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $883 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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