Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Hyperliquid hit in June?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 92 | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| ↑ 88 | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| ↑ 84 | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| ↑ 72 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ 80 | 62% YES | 38% NO |
| ↑ 76 | 87% YES | 13% NO |
| ↓ 68 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 60 | 41% YES | 60% NO |
Hyperliquid, a decentralised perpetuals exchange built on its own blockchain, faces a price target test in June 2025. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 14% implied probability of the token reaching an unspecified price level during that month, suggesting traders assess the likelihood as modest. This probability emerges from the spread between buyers and sellers, with the current pricing indicating scepticism about a significant rally within the defined window.
Comparable cases in crypto derivatives platforms show highly volatile price action tied to exchange adoption metrics and broader market sentiment. Dydx, another major perpetuals protocol, experienced substantial swings following mainnet launches and governance shifts. Hyperliquid's native token has similarly demonstrated sensitivity to trading volume announcements and feature releases. The 14% probability sits at the lower end of conviction, typical for single-month price targets in crypto where volatility is high but directional certainty remains limited.
Key catalysts traders should monitor include any announcements regarding cross-chain expansion, trading volume milestones, or institutional partnerships. Hyperliquid's development roadmap and competitive positioning against Dydx and GMX will influence capital flows. Broader crypto market conditions—particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements—remain the dominant driver, as perpetuals exchange tokens typically correlate with overall sector momentum. Settlement occurs in early July, providing a one-month observation window after June closes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Hyperliquid hit in June?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$36K in lifetime turnover and $42K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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