Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Ethereum hit on May 11?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 2,650 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,550 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 2,300 | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| ↓ 2,250 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| ↓ 2,200 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ↓ 2,150 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↓ 2,100 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Ethereum's price action on 11 May 2026 will be determined by macroeconomic conditions, on-chain activity, and regulatory developments across the intervening eighteen months. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price range or insufficient liquidity at the extremes of the distribution. Order book depth will shape how aggressively traders can position, particularly if the settlement window approaches with thin markets at tail outcomes.
Historical precedent suggests Ethereum's intraday and daily volatility have ranged from 5–15% during periods of moderate market stress and 20%+ during episodes of acute liquidation cascades or major protocol events. The 2022 Shanghai upgrade and subsequent market repricing offer a reference point: Ethereum moved roughly 30% in the weeks surrounding significant technical milestones. Between now and May 2026, traders should monitor Ethereum 2.0 scaling upgrades, changes to staking economics, major DeFi protocol developments, and shifts in institutional adoption patterns.
Near-term catalysts include regulatory clarity from the SEC and international bodies on staking-as-a-security questions, macroeconomic interest rate decisions affecting risk appetite, and Bitcoin's price trajectory, which historically correlates with Ethereum's directional bias. The settlement window closes 12 May 2026, meaning the price snapshot will capture a single point in time rather than an average, amplifying the relevance of intraday volatility and any flash events occurring on that specific date.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Ethereum hit on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$37K in lifetime turnover and $89K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $37K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: