Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Bitcoin hit on May 14?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 87,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 86,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 85,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 84,000 | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 83,000 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| ↑ 82,000 | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| ↑ 81,000 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| ↑ 80,000 | 92% YES | 8% NO |
Bitcoin's price action on 14 May 2026 remains subject to macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and market sentiment that will unfold over the coming months. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price threshold or minimal trading activity in this particular contract, with the spread between bid and ask likely determining whether traders find value at current levels.
Historical Bitcoin price movements show volatility clustering around Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation data releases, and geopolitical events. The May 2021 crash from $64,000 to $30,000 and subsequent recovery demonstrate how quickly sentiment can shift. Comparable forward-looking contracts on Polymarket typically see probability shifts accelerate in the final weeks before settlement, particularly when spot prices approach strike levels or when macro conditions change materially.
Key catalysts through May 2026 include quarterly US inflation reports, any Federal Reserve rate decisions, and potential regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies regarding spot Bitcoin ETF frameworks. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and Treasury yields remains a structural dependency; any significant shift in real interest rate expectations could drive repricing across crypto assets. Traders should monitor on-chain metrics, institutional custody flows, and statements from major holders, as these often precede significant price moves. The settlement window closes 15 May 2026, meaning the final 24 hours will likely see concentrated trading if the spot price approaches the contract's strike level.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Bitcoin hit on May 14?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11K in lifetime turnover and $139K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $11K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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