Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Bitcoin hit on June 5?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 70,000 | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 69,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 68,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 67,000 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ↑ 66,000 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| ↑ 65,000 | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| ↑ 64,000 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| ↑ 63,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Bitcoin's price action on 5 June 2026 remains subject to macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and market sentiment across the intervening eighteen months. The current 1% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a market consensus that Bitcoin reaching an unspecified price target on that specific date is an outlier outcome. Order book depth and recent trading activity suggest limited conviction either direction, with the probability formed through sparse liquidity at extreme price levels rather than concentrated positioning.
Historical volatility in Bitcoin's daily price ranges provides context for interpreting this probability. Bitcoin has experienced intraday swings exceeding 10% during periods of elevated volatility, particularly around Federal Reserve announcements or geopolitical shocks. However, the specificity of hitting a particular price on a particular date compounds the difficulty—even if Bitcoin's annual range is predictable, the probability of landing on any single price point on any single day remains mathematically constrained. Comparable prediction markets on cryptocurrency price targets have historically shown that 1% probabilities tend to cluster around outcomes requiring either extreme market moves or precise timing coincidence.
Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic calendar events through June 2026, including US inflation data, central bank policy decisions, and any significant regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency custody or trading. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and risk sentiment has strengthened since 2023, making broader market volatility a material dependency. Recent institutional adoption trends and spot exchange-traded fund flows will also influence price discovery mechanisms heading into the settlement window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Bitcoin hit on June 5?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$322K in lifetime turnover and $59K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $322K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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