Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Bitcoin hit May 1-June 7?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 88,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 86,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 84,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 82,000 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| ↑ 80,000 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| ↑ 78,000 | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| ↑ 76,000 | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| ↓ 72,000 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
Bitcoin's price action during the first week of May through early June 2026 will determine whether the asset reaches a specific threshold during that window. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing this outcome at 1% implied probability, reflecting substantial scepticism among traders that Bitcoin will hit this level within the designated settlement period.
Historical volatility patterns show Bitcoin has experienced multi-week rallies of 20–40% during bull phases, though such moves typically require sustained macroeconomic tailwinds or major institutional adoption announcements. The 1% pricing suggests the market is pricing in either a very high price target or a compressed timeframe that makes achievement unlikely. Comparable precedent from 2021 and early 2024 demonstrates that Bitcoin can move sharply over six-week windows, but the current probability weighting indicates traders view the specific threshold as materially above where consensus expects the asset to trade.
Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve policy signals and inflation data releases scheduled for May and June 2026, as these typically drive risk-asset repricing. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows, major corporate treasury announcements, and regulatory developments—particularly from the SEC or international bodies—could shift volatility expectations. Geopolitical events affecting safe-haven demand and traditional equity market performance will also influence Bitcoin's trajectory during this window. The thin liquidity at the 1% level on Polymarket's order book means any significant catalyst could produce sharp probability movements.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Bitcoin hit May 1-June 7?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$416 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $416 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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