Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $700M | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| $1B | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| $3B | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| $2B | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| $4B | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| $300M | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| $500M | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| $100M | 54% YES | 47% NO |
Metamask, the browser-based cryptocurrency wallet owned by Consensys, has long been expected to launch its own token. The market is pricing a 30% probability that the token's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within one day of becoming publicly tradable. The settlement window closes at the end of 2026, creating a defined timeframe for either a token launch or a "No" resolution.
Comparable token launches from established crypto infrastructure providers offer context for interpreting current pricing. Uniswap's 2020 launch saw its FDV reach approximately $1 billion within 24 hours despite minimal prior announcement, whilst Lido's 2023 launch achieved a $1.8 billion FDV on day one. However, these cases involved different market conditions and user bases. Metamask's 30 million monthly active users represent substantial distribution advantage, yet the broader crypto market environment at launch will materially affect initial valuation. The current 30% probability reflects uncertainty around both the launch timeline and post-launch market reception.
Recent developments suggest momentum towards a token launch. Consensys has gradually expanded Metamask's feature set and revenue mechanisms, including staking and portfolio tracking functionalities that would benefit from tokenisation. Traders should monitor Consensys announcements, regulatory developments affecting token launches, and broader market conditions in late 2026. The Polymarket order book currently reflects the 30% probability, with traders pricing in meaningful execution risk around timing and the specific FDV threshold being tested.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3.0M in lifetime turnover and $101K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $506 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: