Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the crypto token Hyperliquid ($HYPE) is listed for spot purchase on Binance by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be Binance, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31, 2026 | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Hyperliquid's native token $HYPE launched in March 2024 and currently trades on decentralised exchanges and select centralised platforms, but remains absent from Binance's spot market. The question centres on whether the exchange will list the token for direct fiat and stablecoin trading by year-end 2026. Binance's listing decisions typically reflect a combination of regulatory clarity, trading volume thresholds, and strategic partnerships. The 28% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects meaningful uncertainty about whether Hyperliquid meets Binance's evolving criteria within the settlement window.
Historical precedent suggests major exchange listings follow predictable patterns. Tokens with strong developer communities and established use cases—such as Arbitrum and Optimism—secured Binance listings within 12–18 months of launch, whilst others faced multi-year delays or never achieved such placements. Hyperliquid's positioning as a decentralised derivatives platform distinguishes it from standard utility tokens, potentially complicating listing timelines given regulatory scrutiny around leveraged trading products. The current probability reflects this structural uncertainty rather than fundamental rejection.
Traders should monitor regulatory developments around spot trading of derivatives-native tokens, any official Binance communications regarding listing criteria, and Hyperliquid's own user growth metrics and trading volumes. Recent market commentary has emphasised that centralised exchange listings increasingly depend on jurisdictional compliance frameworks rather than technical merit alone. The settlement date provides roughly two years for material developments to shift the probability materially in either direction.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid listed on Binance by 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$241K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $144 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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