Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Hyperlend's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Hyperlend (https://x.com/hyperlendx) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $100M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $50M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $200M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $20M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $300M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Hyperlend, a decentralised lending protocol, is preparing to launch its governance token. The market is pricing the probability that the token's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold at exactly 0%, suggesting traders currently assess this outcome as implausible or are simply not yet engaged with the question. The FDV calculation is straightforward: total token supply multiplied by the token price as measured on the most liquid exchange 24 hours after public trading begins. On Polymarket's order book, this 0% probability reflects either extreme confidence in a lower valuation outcome or minimal liquidity and activity in the contract itself.
Historical precedent matters here. Governance tokens from lending protocols have shown volatile launch valuations, with outcomes heavily dependent on initial exchange listings, pre-launch hype, and early liquidity conditions. Tokens from comparable protocols like Aave and Compound launched at valuations that surprised many observers in both directions, though most established lending platforms have eventually traded above their initial FDV thresholds within the first day. The current 0% probability may underestimate tail-risk scenarios where strong community demand or exchange promotion drives early price appreciation.
Key catalysts include Hyperlend's official launch announcement, which exchange listings will host the token, and whether any major venture backers or influencers signal support ahead of trading. Market participants should monitor the protocol's social channels and recent funding announcements for timing signals. The settlement window extends to January 2027, allowing considerable time for the underlying event to occur, though the market's current pricing suggests traders are either heavily discounting near-term launch probability or awaiting clearer information before committing capital.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperlend FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2.0M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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