Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market settles based on whether Hyperliquid's price on the Chainlink HYPE/USD data stream closes higher or flat during a five-minute window on 1 May at 9:45–9:50 PM ET. The 100% implied probability reflects the current orderbook positioning on Polymarket, where traders have priced in near-certainty of an upward or neutral price movement during this specific interval. Such extreme probabilities in short-duration crypto markets typically indicate either very tight bid-ask spreads with minimal liquidity depth, or consensus around directional momentum at that particular time.
Five-minute price windows in crypto rarely settle at extremes without significant underlying volatility or event catalysts. Historical precedent suggests that when major exchanges or protocols experience scheduled maintenance, announcements, or liquidation cascades, even brief windows can see sharp reversals. Hyperliquid, as a decentralised perpetuals exchange, experiences intraday volatility driven by funding rates, large position liquidations, and broader Bitcoin-Ethereum correlation movements. The settlement dependency on Chainlink's specific data feed rather than spot prices introduces potential divergence if the oracle experiences latency or if spot-futures basis widens sharply.
Traders should monitor Hyperliquid's open interest and funding rates leading into the window, as elevated leverage can trigger cascading liquidations. Broader crypto market catalysts—Federal Reserve communications, Bitcoin options expiry schedules, or major altcoin announcements—could shift volatility expectations. The five-minute timeframe means execution risk and slippage on any position adjustment will be material, particularly given the current extreme probability pricing leaves minimal margin for adverse price action.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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