Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles based on whether Bitcoin's price on Binance closes at or above its opening level during the one-hour candle beginning 12:00 PM ET on 10 May 2026. The resolution hinges on intraday price movement within that specific 60-minute window, using the BTC/USDT pair's open and close values as displayed on Binance's 1H chart once the candle finalises.
The 0% implied probability reflected in Polymarket's order book suggests traders are pricing in a near-certain decline during this particular hour. Historically, single-hour Bitcoin candles show roughly 50% close above open in normal market conditions, though directional bias emerges during volatile periods or around major news events. The current extreme probability skew indicates either anticipated selling pressure, scheduled negative catalysts, or illiquidity in the order book creating wide spreads that discourage YES positions.
Traders should monitor Bitcoin's broader price action in the days preceding 10 May, as macro events—Federal Reserve communications, spot ETF flows, or significant altcoin movements—often create directional momentum that persists into specific hourly windows. Geopolitical developments or regulatory announcements could shift intraday volatility expectations. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on that date, providing a five-hour buffer after the candle closes for Binance data to finalise. Given the extreme probability, any material shift in market sentiment before the event would likely trigger significant repricing on Polymarket's order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$71K in lifetime turnover and $460K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $71K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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