Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <72,000 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 72,000-74,000 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 74,000-76,000 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| 76,000-78,000 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| 78,000-80,000 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| 80,000-82,000 | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| 82,000-84,000 | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| 84,000-86,000 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
This market settles on Bitcoin's closing price at noon ET on 18 May 2026, using Binance's 1-minute candle data for BTC/USDT. The 2% implied probability reflects a narrow band outcome—the market is pricing in an extremely specific price range that Bitcoin would need to hit precisely at that moment. Such tight clustering around a single timestamp creates inherent difficulty in prediction, as intraday volatility and execution timing introduce substantial noise. The order book on Polymarket shows minimal depth at YES positions, consistent with the low probability; most liquidity concentrates on NO, where traders are effectively betting against any particular narrow bracket materialising.
Historical precedent suggests that single-day, single-hour Bitcoin price predictions rarely attract high conviction. Bitcoin's daily volatility typically ranges 2–5%, and noon ET closures are arbitrary points within broader trading sessions. Past Polymarket crypto markets with similar specificity have resolved NO at rates exceeding 90%, as the precision required to land within a defined bracket at an exact time exceeds most traders' confidence intervals. The current 2% reflects this baseline scepticism rather than any particular bearish or bullish signal.
Catalysts between now and May 2026 remain diffuse and long-dated. Regulatory announcements, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and macroeconomic data releases could influence Bitcoin's trajectory, but predicting their timing and magnitude nearly two years forward introduces compounding uncertainty. Traders monitoring this market would watch for structural changes in Bitcoin's volatility regime or major institutional adoption shifts, though these typically move prices over weeks rather than settling at precise noon closures.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin price on May 18?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$382 in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $382 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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