Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if BIP-360 is implemented on the Bitcoin network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin BIP-360 implemented in 2026? | 13% YES | 87% NO |
BIP-360, formally titled "Consensus Change: UTXO Set Commitments," proposes embedding commitments to the unspent transaction output set within block headers. This would enable light clients and nodes to verify the UTXO set without downloading the entire blockchain history, addressing a longstanding scalability constraint. Implementation would require a network-wide consensus upgrade—a contentious process that has historically taken years of discussion, testing, and community alignment before activation.
The 12% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects scepticism about 2026 completion. Bitcoin's upgrade timeline has consistently extended beyond initial expectations: Taproot took roughly four years from serious proposal to activation in 2021, whilst Segwit required even longer. BIP-360 remains in early specification stages with limited developer consensus on its necessity relative to alternative scaling solutions like rollups and sidechains. The absence of a formal activation timeline or major mining pool commitment signals low near-term momentum.
Traders should monitor Bitcoin Core development mailing lists and the annual Bitcoin Optech summaries for shifts in developer prioritisation. Any major exchange or institutional announcement endorsing UTXO commitments as critical infrastructure could alter trajectory. Equally, competing proposals gaining traction—particularly those addressing similar problems through different mechanisms—would reduce BIP-360's likelihood. The settlement window ending January 2027 leaves approximately thirteen months for a proposal still lacking clear consensus to move from specification through testing, signalling, and activation phases.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin BIP-360 implemented in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $910 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 13%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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