Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Aster hit before 2027?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 2.00 | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| ↑ 1.60 | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| ↑ 1.20 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 0.80 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 0.40 | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| ↑ 2.20 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| ↑ 1.80 | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| ↑ 1.40 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
Aster, a layer-two scaling solution and modular blockchain platform, faces a price target assessment ahead of the 2027 settlement window. The current Polymarket order book is pricing a 16% probability that Aster will reach an unspecified price threshold before 1 January 2027, reflecting moderate scepticism among traders regarding near-term appreciation over the next twelve months.
Historical precedent for layer-two tokens suggests wide variance in adoption-driven price movements. Arbitrum and Optimism both experienced significant volatility following mainnet launches and ecosystem milestones, with prices fluctuating between 50% drawdowns and multi-fold gains within similar timeframes. Aster's positioning as a modular blockchain introduces different dynamics than traditional rollup solutions; comparable projects like Celestia and Avail have shown that infrastructure tokens can sustain elevated valuations during periods of active developer adoption and ecosystem expansion, though liquidity constraints and market sentiment shifts create substantial downside risk.
Traders monitoring Aster should track ecosystem development announcements, validator participation metrics, and transaction volume on the network. Recent blockchain infrastructure funding cycles have tightened, and regulatory clarity around staking mechanisms remains incomplete in several jurisdictions. Macroeconomic conditions affecting risk asset appetite, particularly movements in Bitcoin and Ethereum, will likely dominate price discovery given Aster's correlation with broader crypto market cycles. The settlement window extends through the end of 2026, meaning the final quarter of that year will be critical for price formation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Aster hit in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$67K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for crypto prices contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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