Trade: T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Papua New Guinea vs Samoa - Toss Match Double
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Papua New Guinea and Samoa scheduled for 2026-05-12 in T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Papua New Guinea will be considered correct if Papua New Guinea is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Samoa will be considered correct if Samoa is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $102
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| PNG | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Draw | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| WSM | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
Papua New Guinea and Samoa will contest the T20 World Cup East Asia-Pacific Qualifier Regional Final on 12 May 2026, with this market requiring PNG to win both the coin toss and the match for a YES resolution. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50% implied probability, suggesting the market perceives roughly equal likelihood of PNG achieving this double outcome versus Samoa winning the toss and match, or either team winning one component but not both. This even split indicates traders view the teams as relatively balanced competitors, though the compound nature of the bet—requiring success in two independent events—typically depresses the probability of either team's double outcome below what their individual match-win odds might suggest.
Historical precedent from T20 qualifying tournaments shows that toss outcomes carry genuine weight in shorter-format cricket, particularly in regional qualifiers where ground conditions and pitch characteristics may favour batting or bowling. Samoa's recent performances in regional T20 competitions provide a baseline for assessing whether they represent genuine competitive parity with PNG or whether the 50-50 pricing reflects uncertainty rather than true balance. PNG's domestic cricket infrastructure and recent international exposure through qualifying rounds will be relevant factors in determining whether they are favoured in the underlying match component.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding squad composition and any injury updates prior to the 12 May fixture. Venue conditions at the designated ground, historically documented through previous regional qualifier matches, will influence both toss strategy and match outcome expectations. The settlement window closing on 19 May allows two weeks post-match for official confirmation via ESPNcricinfo, providing clarity on any disputed results or administrative delays common in regional qualifying tournaments.
Wikipedia Context
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2009 World Twenty20The 2009 ICC World Twenty20 was the second edition of the Men's T20 World Cup, formerly known as the ICC World Twenty20 that took place in England in June 2009. As before, the tournament featured 12 male teams – nine of the ten Test-playing nations and three associate nations, which earned their places through a qualification tournament. ICC Full member Zimb
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2012 World Twenty20The 2012 ICC World Twenty20 was the fourth edition of the Men's T20 World Cup, formerly known as the ICC World Twenty20, an international Twenty20 cricket tournament that took place in Sri Lanka from 18 September to 7 October 2012 which was won by the West Indies. This was the first World Twenty20 tournament held in an Asian country, the last three having be
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The World's BillionairesThe World's Billionaires is an annual ranking of people who are billionaires, i.e., they are considered to have a net worth of US$1 billion or more, by the American business magazine Forbes. The list was first published in March 1987. The total net worth of each individual on the list is estimated and is cited in United States dollars, based on their documen
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The World Ends with YouThe World Ends with You is an action role-playing game co-developed by Square Enix and Jupiter for the Nintendo DS. Set in the modern-day Shibuya shopping district of Tokyo, The World Ends with You features a distinctive art style and urban fantasy elements inspired by Shibuya and its youth culture. Development was inspired by elements of Jupiter's previous
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Papua New Guinea vs Samoa - Toss Match D" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $102 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for cricket contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Papua New Guinea vs Samoa - Toss Match Double"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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