Cricket

Trade: T20 Series Malaysia vs Indonesia: Malaysia vs Indonesia - Toss Match Double

Opened 26 April 2026 · Settles 9 May 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Malaysia and Indonesia scheduled for 2026-05-01 in T20 Series Malaysia vs Indonesia. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Malaysia will be considered correct if Malaysia is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Indonesia will be considered correct if Indonesia is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $497
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $431

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Market outcomes

Draw	100% YES	0% NO
MYS	0% YES	100% NO
IDN	0% YES	100% NO

Market context

Malaysia and Indonesia will contest a T20 cricket match on 1 May 2026, with this market requiring Malaysia to win both the pre-match coin toss and the subsequent match itself, or Indonesia to achieve the same combination. The settlement hinges on official records from ESPN Cricinfo, making toss outcome and final result the dual conditions for resolution. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in an expectation that one team will accomplish both conditions, though such certainty in dual-event markets is uncommon and warrants scrutiny of underlying assumptions.

Comparable T20 bilateral series between South Asian and Southeast Asian teams show toss outcomes carry minimal predictive value for match results—historical data indicates coin tosses are essentially random events uncorrelated with team performance. The combination market therefore compounds two largely independent probabilities: toss success (approximately 50%) and match victory (dependent on team strength, conditions, and form). Malaysia has historically held a stronger T20 record against Indonesia, though both nations compete at similar levels within regional cricket structures. The extreme probability reading suggests either significant information asymmetry or potential mispricing in the order book.

Key developments to monitor include team composition announcements, venue conditions at the scheduled ground, and any weather forecasts approaching the match date. Recent T20 series between these nations have shown competitive contests, with outcomes influenced by pitch behaviour and squad availability. Traders should verify whether the 100% probability reflects genuine conviction or represents thin liquidity in the order book, as dual-outcome markets typically exhibit wider probability ranges given the compounding of independent events.

Wikipedia Context

T-Series (company)
Super Cassettes Industries Private Limited, doing business as T-Series, is an Indian record label and film studio founded by Gulshan Kumar on 11 July 1983. It is primarily known for Hindi film soundtracks and Indi-pop music. T-Series is the largest music record label in India, with up to a 35% share of the Indian music market. As of April 2026, T-Series also
The Series Finale
"The Series Finale" is the ninth episode and series finale of the American television miniseries WandaVision, based on Marvel Comics featuring the characters Wanda Maximoff / Scarlet Witch and Vision. It follows Wanda as she tries to protect the idyllic suburban life and family that she created in the town of Westview, New Jersey. The episode is set in the M
TR series minesweeping trawler
The TR series were minesweeping naval trawlers built during World War I. Ordered by the Royal Navy, they were loaned to the Royal Canadian Navy for seaward defence of the East Coast of Canada. The total number of vessels that entered service is unknown with 60 hulls constructed by eight Canadian shipyards. Based on the British Castle class, some entered serv
T series (Toronto subway)
The T series, also known as the T-1, is the fourth series of rapid transit rolling stock used in the subway system of Toronto, Ontario, Canada. They were ordered by the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC) in 1992 and built in one production set between 1995 and 2001 by Bombardier Transportation in Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "T20 Series Malaysia vs Indonesia: Malaysia vs Indonesia - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$497 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for cricket contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

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Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "T20 Series Malaysia vs Indonesia: Malaysia vs Indonesia - Toss Match Double"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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