Trade: Which maps will Valve Remove by June 30?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve removes the listed map from the official map pool by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the removal lasts continuously for at least 48 hours. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Temporary or testing removals reversed within 48 hours do not count. The "official map pool" refers to the Active Duty map group in CS2, used for competitive matchmaking (Premier mode) and professional tournaments. For the purpose of this market, “Valve” refers to Valve Corporation, the developer and publisher of the Counter-Strike series.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $7K
- Total Volume
- $712K
- 24h Volume
- $13
- Open Interest
- $4K
Market outcomes
| Mirage | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Nuke | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Overpass | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Train | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Inferno | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| Dust 2 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Ancient | 8% YES | 93% NO |
Market context
Valve's removal of a map from Counter-Strike 2's Active Duty pool before 30 June 2026 remains an uncommon occurrence. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 8% implied probability, suggesting traders assess meaningful but low likelihood of a permanent map rotation change within the settlement window. This probability has been shaped by the relatively stable composition of CS2's competitive map pool since the game's launch in September 2023, with Valve demonstrating reluctance to disrupt the professional circuit through sudden removals.
Historical precedent provides limited guidance for this market. Valve has occasionally rotated maps in and out of Active Duty, though such changes typically occur during scheduled seasonal updates rather than ad hoc removals. The distinction between temporary testing removals—which do not trigger resolution—and permanent departures lasting at least 48 hours creates a meaningful threshold. Previous map pool adjustments in Counter-Strike: Global Offensive occurred infrequently and often coincided with major patches or competitive season transitions.
Traders should monitor Valve's official announcements regarding CS2 balance changes and competitive scheduling, particularly any statements about map performance metrics or player feedback driving rotation decisions. The professional esports calendar, including Major tournaments scheduled through mid-2026, may influence timing of any potential removals, as Valve typically avoids disrupting established competitive schedules. Community sentiment regarding specific maps and any technical issues affecting gameplay could signal catalyst events, though Valve's historical caution suggests the 8% probability reflects genuine structural resistance to mid-season map pool alterations.
Wikipedia Context
-
Which Was the Son of ...Arvo Pärt's Which Was the Son of ... is a setting of the genealogy of Jesus from the Gospel of Luke, for mixed choir a cappella, written in 2000. It was published by Universal Edition.
-
The Fast ShowThe Fast Show is a BBC comedy sketch show that ran on BBC 2 from 1994 to 1997, with specials in 2000 and 2014. The show's central performers were Paul Whitehouse, Charlie Higson, Simon Day, Mark Williams, John Thomson, Arabella Weir and Caroline Aherne. Other significant cast members included Felix Dexter, Paul Shearer, Rhys Thomas, Jeff Harding, Maria McErl
-
Which Moped with Chrome-plated Handlebars at the Back of the Yard?Which Moped with Chrome-plated Handlebars at the Back of the Yard? is a comic novella by Georges Perec. Perec's second published work, it was originally published in 1966 in French as Quel petit vélo à guidon chromé au fond de la cour? The English translation by Ian Monk was published in Three by Perec by David R. Godine, Publisher in 2004. The Review of Con
-
Tommy Tutone 2Tommy Tutone 2 is the second album by rock band Tommy Tutone, released in 1981. It features its biggest hit, "867-5309/Jenny". The first two albums by the band were re-released by the Collectable label as a two-albums-on-one-CD release in 1997. John Cowsill of the Cowsills appears on backing vocals and plays percussion on the album.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Which maps will Valve Remove by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$712K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for counter strike 2 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $13 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Which maps will Valve Remove by June 30?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: