Trade: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - June 2026
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for June 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for June 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on June 26, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $37K
- Total Volume
- $20K
- 24h Volume
- $3K
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| <40.0 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| 43.0–45.9 | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| 49.0–51.9 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| ≥55.0 | 3% YES | 98% NO |
| 40.0–42.9 | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| 46.0–48.9 | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| 52.0–54.9 | 7% YES | 94% NO |
Market context
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for June 2026 will be released on 26 June at 10:00 AM ET. This monthly gauge measures household expectations around personal finances, business conditions, and buying intentions across approximately 500 American consumers. The final reading determines which bracket this market resolves to, with settlement occurring immediately after the official University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers release.
Historical context shows the ICS typically ranges between 70 and 100 in stable periods, though it has traded as low as 55 during recessions and above 110 during periods of strong optimism. The current 14% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects positioning around a specific bracket outcome; traders are pricing in a relatively low likelihood of the June figure falling within that range. Recent readings through early 2026 will establish the baseline for expectations, as the index tends to move in response to labour market conditions, inflation data, and equity market performance in the months preceding the survey.
Key catalysts between now and the June release include monthly employment reports, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and inflation readings—all of which directly influence household sentiment. The May 2026 ICS release, scheduled for late May, will provide the most immediate predecessor data and may shift positioning substantially. Any significant economic shocks or policy announcements in the weeks before late June could alter the distribution of outcomes across brackets, making real-time monitoring of macroeconomic releases essential for traders managing exposure to this contract.
Wikipedia Context
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University of MichiganThe University of Michigan is a public research university in Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States. It was founded in 1817 and is the oldest institution of higher education in the state. It is also one of the earliest American research universities and is a founding member of the Association of American Universities.
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University of Michigan–DearbornThe University of Michigan–Dearborn (UM-Dearborn) is a public university in Dearborn, Michigan, United States. Founded in 1959 with a gift from the Ford Motor Company, it was initially known as the Dearborn Center, operating as a remote branch of the University of Michigan. Upon receiving its own accreditation in 1970, the branch became a fully-fledged unive
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University of Michigan–FlintThe University of Michigan–Flint (UM-Flint) is a public university in Flint, Michigan, United States. Founded in 1956 as the Flint Senior College, it was initially established as a remote branch of the University of Michigan, offering upper-division undergraduate courses. The institution developed into a fully-fledged university and received accreditation in
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University of Michigan Law SchoolThe University of Michigan Law School is the law school of the University of Michigan, a public research university in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Founded in 1859, the school offers Master of Laws (LLM), Master of Comparative Law (MCL), Juris Doctor (JD), and Doctor of the Science of Law (SJD) degree programs.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - June 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$20K in lifetime turnover and $37K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for consumer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - June 2026"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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