Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 29 days to resolution — long enough that information asymmetry can still move the line meaningfully, backed by $1.5M of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ $90 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ $56 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ $65 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ $75 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ $70 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ $55 | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| ↓ $52 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↓ $40 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Crude oil futures are trading with the market currently pricing a 100% probability that the front-month CME contract will reach a specified price level by the end of June 2026. This reflects either an exceptionally tight strike relative to current spot valuations or a technical feature of how the market is structured on Polymarket's order book. The settlement mechanism tracks the official CME settlement price for whichever contract month is active—switching to the next listed contract two business days before spot month expiration—ensuring clarity on which instrument determines the outcome.
Historical precedent suggests that crude oil rarely trades in a perfectly flat range over six-month windows. Between 2020 and 2024, WTI crude moved through multiple $10–15 per barrel bands within comparable timeframes, driven by OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical supply disruptions, and macroeconomic demand signals. A 100% implied probability typically indicates either the strike is set substantially below current forward curves, or the market structure itself creates a pricing anomaly worth investigating before committing capital.
Key catalysts through June 2026 include OPEC+ meetings (scheduled quarterly), US Federal Reserve policy announcements affecting dollar strength and real rates, and any material supply disruptions in the Middle East or Russia. Recent sanctions escalation and production cuts have supported prices; conversely, recession signals or demand destruction from China would pressure downside. Traders should monitor CME Crude Oil contract specifications closely, as the active month transition rules directly affect which settlement price applies on the final trading day.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.html. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 30 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Will Crude Oil (CL) hit 2026 by end of June?", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($1.5M of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Will Crude Oil (CL) hit 2026 by end of June?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$21.9M in lifetime turnover and $1.5M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for commodities contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $671K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.html. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Will Crude Oil (CL) hit 2026 by end of June?", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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