Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) on May 11, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) on May 11, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 11? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Coinbase Global's stock price movement on 11 May 2026 will be determined by comparing that day's closing price against the previous trading day's close. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 44% implied probability for an up move, suggesting traders assess a slight bias towards downward or flat price action. This single-day directional bet captures intraday volatility and overnight sentiment shifts in a stock that has historically experienced significant swings tied to cryptocurrency market conditions and regulatory developments.
Single-day equity moves of this nature typically hinge on company-specific announcements, sector-wide catalysts, or broader market momentum. Coinbase's stock has shown sensitivity to Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements, regulatory announcements from the SEC or CFTC, quarterly earnings releases, and shifts in institutional adoption narratives. Traders should monitor whether any earnings calls, product launches, or regulatory guidance are scheduled near the settlement window, as these can materially shift positioning in the final trading sessions.
The 44% probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a strong directional consensus. Historical patterns show that single-day equity moves are difficult to predict with precision; the distribution of daily returns for large-cap stocks typically clusters near zero with fat tails. Traders currently pricing in slightly better odds for a down move may be factoring in recent price strength, mean reversion expectations, or broader market conditions as of the order book's formation. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 11 May 2026, capturing the full US trading session.
Coinbase, Inc. v. Suski, 602 U.S. 143 (2024), was a United States Supreme Court case in which the Court held that where one contract between parties sends disputes to arbitration and another contract sends disputes to courts, a court must decide which contract governs.
Coinbase, Inc. v. Bielski, 599 U.S. 736 (2023), was a United States Supreme Court case in which the Court held that a federal district court must stay its proceedings while an interlocutory appeal on the question of arbitrability is ongoing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.COIN%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $39K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for coin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.COIN%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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