Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual provides testimony about Jeffrey Epstein before either chamber of the United States Congress (House of Representatives or Senate), or any of their official committees or subcommittees, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying testimony may be either live or recorded, in-person or remote, and closed or open to the public.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hillary Clinton | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Lord Peter Mandelson | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| Donald Trump | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Ex-Prince Andrew | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Bill Clinton | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Elon Musk | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| Les Wexner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Congressional testimony regarding Jeffrey Epstein's operations and associates remains a significant potential outcome given ongoing litigation and investigations. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial conviction amongst traders that someone within the Clinton orbit will provide sworn testimony to Congress or a congressional committee by June 2026. This probability formation suggests either anticipated subpoenas, voluntary cooperation agreements, or legislative momentum that market participants view as near-certain to materialise.
Historical precedent indicates that high-profile figures connected to major scandals frequently testify under compulsion rather than voluntarily. The Iran-Contra hearings, Watergate proceedings, and recent Capitol riot investigations all produced testimony from reluctant witnesses after sustained congressional pressure. Epstein-related testimony has already occurred in limited contexts—the 2015 deposition of Bill Clinton by the FBI, for instance—though formal congressional testimony represents a distinct threshold. Markets pricing testimony at certainty typically reflect either explicit subpoena issuance or credible reporting of imminent legislative action.
Traders should monitor several catalysts through mid-2026: announcements from congressional committees investigating sex trafficking or financial crimes; developments in civil litigation involving Epstein's estate; and any legislative proposals specifically mandating testimony from named individuals. The Southern District of New York's ongoing cases and recent reporting on Epstein's associates' activities could trigger renewed congressional interest. Additionally, changes in congressional leadership or committee composition following the 2024 elections may alter the political calculus around pursuing such testimony, potentially affecting whether subpoenas materialise before the settlement deadline.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will testify to congress about Epstein?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$61K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for clinton contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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