Trade: Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a reduction, removal, or suspension of any existing tariffs on China between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only tariffs reductions specifically announced in relation to China, goods from China, or a specific set of countries including China will qualify. For example, an announced reduction in global tariffs will not count toward this market’s resolution. Only definitive announcements qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $8K
- Total Volume
- $2K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $750
Market outcomes
| Tariff Reduction | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Taiwan Arms Sales Halt | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| AI Export Restrictions Relief | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| New Sanctions | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| U.S.-China AI Safety Channel | — | |
| Detained Americans Release | — | |
| US-China Board of Trade | — | |
Market context
The market concerns whether Donald Trump will announce a reduction, removal, or suspension of tariffs on China by 22 May 2026. The resolution criteria are narrow: only definitive announcements specifically tied to China, Chinese goods, or a country grouping that includes China qualify. General tariff reductions affecting multiple countries without explicit China reference do not settle the market to "Yes". Negotiations, expressions of openness to tariff relief, and non-binding suggestions fall outside the settlement parameters.
Trump's first term (2017–2021) established a pattern of tariff announcements often following bilateral meetings or trade discussions, though many negotiations proceeded without formal tariff reductions. The 2020 Phase One trade deal with China involved structural commitments rather than tariff cuts. More recently, Trump's 2024 campaign rhetoric emphasised maintaining or expanding tariffs as leverage in trade negotiations. The current 44% implied probability on Polymarket reflects uncertainty about whether a summit occurs and, if it does, whether Trump opts for tariff concessions as a negotiating tool or maintains his historical protectionist stance.
Traders should monitor announcements from the Trump administration regarding summit scheduling, statements from Chinese officials about trade discussions, and any formal trade negotiations between the two governments. Recent reporting on US–China relations will signal the likelihood of high-level engagement. The settlement window extends through May 2026, providing time for multiple potential announcement windows. The order book pricing reflects meaningful disagreement about whether Trump views tariff reductions as strategically advantageous during this period.
Wikipedia Context
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2018 North Korea–United States Singapore SummitThe 2018 North Korea–United States Singapore Summit, commonly known as the Singapore Summit, was a summit meeting between North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Un and U.S. president Donald Trump, held at the Capella Hotel, Sentosa, Singapore, on June 12, 2018. It was the first-ever meeting between leaders of North Korea and the United States. They signed a joint st
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The Trumpet Summit Meets the Oscar Peterson Big 4The Trumpet Summit Meets the Oscar Peterson Big 4 is a 1980 album featuring the trumpeters Dizzy Gillespie, Clark Terry, and Freddie Hubbard, supported by a quartet led by Oscar Peterson. Outtakes from the 1980 session that produced this album were released as The Alternate Blues.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$2K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for china contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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