Trade: Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual performs live and in person during the Super Bowl LXI halftime show currently scheduled for February 14, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying performances include but are not limited to singing and dancing. An appearance during the event where an individual does not perform as an incorporated part of the show will not alone qualify for a "Yes" resolution. "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched to music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $3K
- Total Volume
- $27
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $27
Market outcomes
| Justin Bieber | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| Drake | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Olivia Rodrigo | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Harry Styles | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Taylor Swift | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Dua Lipa | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Kanye West | 7% YES | 94% NO |
Market context
Super Bowl LXI takes place on 14 February 2027, with the halftime show representing one of American television's most-watched entertainment slots. The NFL typically announces its halftime performer six to eight weeks before the event, meaning confirmation would likely arrive between mid-December 2026 and early January 2027. The 23% implied probability reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests traders currently assess a relatively low likelihood for this particular individual's selection, though the market remains open to new information as the announcement window approaches.
Historical Super Bowl halftime selections reveal consistent patterns worth examining. The NFL prioritises artists with substantial mainstream appeal, proven live performance track records, and minimal recent controversy. Performers aged 50 and above have appeared only occasionally in recent decades, with the most recent being The Who in 2010. Artists with significant touring commitments or health considerations face practical constraints. The current probability positioning suggests market participants view this individual as outside the NFL's typical selection criteria, whether due to age, genre alignment, recent activity level, or competitive strength of alternative candidates.
Traders should monitor several catalysts through to settlement. Official NFL announcements regarding Super Bowl LXI entertainment remain the primary catalyst; such statements typically arrive via press release and major sports media outlets. Secondary signals include any public statements from the individual or their representatives about availability or interest in major performance opportunities. Industry reporting on the NFL's shortlist, should it leak, would provide material information. The relatively compressed timeline between now and the February 2027 event means information asymmetries may persist until formal announcement.
Wikipedia Context
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Macintosh Color ClassicThe Macintosh Color Classic is a personal computer designed, manufactured and sold by Apple Computer, Inc. from February 1993 to May 1995. It has an all-in-one design, with a small, integrated 10″ Sony Trinitron display at 512 × 384 pixel resolution. The display is capable of supporting up to thousands of colors with a video memory upgrade.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$27 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for celebrities contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 February 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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