Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicole Kidman wears pieces of clothing, jewelry, or accessories from the listed designer at any point during her appearance at the 2026 Met Gala, currently scheduled for May 4, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicole Kidman does not attend the Met Gala, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve only after the Met Gala has concluded. No afterparties or later events will qualify; only appearances at the Met Gala itself will count. If the Met Gala does not take place by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tom Ford | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Valentino | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Gucci | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Dolce & Gabbana | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Dior | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Chanel | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Louis Vuitton | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Balenciaga | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The 2026 Met Gala is scheduled for 4 May, and this market concerns which designer Nicole Kidman will wear to the event. The resolution criteria require that pieces from the specified designer appear during her appearance at the gala itself—accessories, jewellery, and clothing all qualify. If Kidman does not attend, or if the gala does not occur by 31 May 2026, the market resolves to "No". The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability, reflecting either minimal trading activity or a genuine absence of conviction that this particular designer will feature in Kidman's gala ensemble.
Kidman's Met Gala attendance history provides the primary frame for assessing likelihood. She has attended consistently over recent decades, typically wearing haute couture from established fashion houses—Dior, Valentino, and Armani have featured prominently in her recent appearances. Her styling choices tend toward classical elegance rather than experimental partnerships with emerging designers. The specificity of designer selection at the Met Gala depends heavily on pre-event announcements from fashion houses and Kidman's own team, which typically emerge in the weeks immediately preceding the event.
Traders should monitor fashion press coverage from March onwards, when major designers typically announce their Met Gala commitments. Vogue and WWD regularly report on confirmed pairings between celebrities and houses. Kidman's recent film projects and public appearances may also signal styling direction. The absence of any announced partnership as of now—reflected in the zero probability—suggests either that negotiations remain confidential or that this particular designer has not secured her participation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will Nicole Kidman wear at the Met Gala?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for celebrities contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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